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Crédito y Caucións short term outlook for the consumer durables/retail sector is still mixed. Analysts generally predict growth in retail spend of approximately 2% in 2011.
There is likely to be some rebound in paper consumption as the UK moves out of recession, but in the long term the downward trend is expected to continue.
The HM Revenue and Customs [HMRC] `time to pay? scheme, allowing viable customers who cannot pay to make payments over a longer period, is improving the insolvency figures.
Since the beginning of the year, the Expected Default Frequency of most of the countries has shown some volatility. Nevertheless, the general tendency has been that of improvement.
Crédito y Caución currently expects corporate insolvencies to decrease 10% this year and 5% in 2011. Despite this improvement, business failures remain higher than in the pre-crisis years.
The Italian food sector has shown a slight increase in late payments, but Crédito y Caución expects a levelling-off or even better results in the second half of the year.
The forecasts of the Italian textile sector for 2010 confirm a poor performance with exports decreasing 9% and domestic orders declining 16%.
After a massive 46.2% increase in 2009, Crédito y Caución expects corporate insolvencies to rise further this year, but an improvement, albeit small, is expected in 2011.
Based on the first months of 2010, Crédito y Caución forecast a 10% decrease in business insolvencies this year, followed by a further 5% drop in 2011.
For the rest of 2010, production will continue to grow at the Austrian chemical industry, but it will take until 2012 to compensate for the loss in revenues suffered in 2009.
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