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The Expected Default Frequency is at the lowest level in 18 months, but Crédito y Caución expects corporate insolvencies to increase by up to 5% this year, compared to 2009.
2010 will be a better year for Mexico, with a expected grow between 3% and 5.5%, thanks to the strong rebound of US economic performance, domestic consumption and investment.
The Expected Default Frequency in the US has dropped to 1,3%, but smaller businesses are still finding it a challenge to secure or maintain financing at least on terms that are competitive.
Our monthly analysis show that economic recovery continues its upward trend, with all the countries reviewed expecting higher growth in 2010 than had been forecast at the end of last year.
Crédito y Caución expects an increase this year of at least 16% on the 2009 figure unless the business environment for Irish companies improves in the coming months.
Crédito y Caución still expects corporate insolvencies to rise by 10% in 2010 compared to 2009, with automotive suppliers, metals/steel, transport and engineering the main victims.
Danish companies have changed from 30 days credit terms to 60 days to gain liquidity. There seems also to be a tendency for companies that used to pay on due date to delay payments.
The economy may well bottom out in the first quarter or half year of 2010, and experts predict a slow recovery in the second half of the year.
United Kingdom has, technically, emerged from recession. After the steep rise in 2009, Crédito y Caución expects business insolvencies to decrease 5% year-on-year in 2010.
Signs of springtime begin to emerge with Germany expected to register a growth rate of 1.7% in 2010 and the UK technically out of recession.
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